Thursday brief
Three things need you. Everything else is on track.
Needs a decision today
Yesterday
The subscription engine
Committed revenue, and what threatens itCharge queue · next 7 days
Failed payments
RecoverableSkips & pauses
next cycleCash & commitments
Against a $150,000 floorThe open decision
Deposit due Fri 28 Aug| Order | Co-manufacturer | Units | Order value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PO-2418 · Oat Latte Concentrate 12oz | Trellis Co-Pack | 12,000 | $204,000 |
Cash, next 90 days
Can we serve what we already sold?
Committed subscriber demand vs. units on hand| SKU | Active subs | Cadence | Units / wk | On hand | Committed 30d | 60d | 90d | Cover | Reorder by |
|---|
Are we buying growth efficiently?
Trailing 7 daysMarketing efficiency
revenue ÷ ad spendAcquisition
PO-2418 · Oat Latte Concentrate
Trellis Co-Pack · $17.00 per unit · 21-day production lead time
Cash impact, 90 days
27 Aug — 25 Nov90-day cash forecast
Subscriber revenue, operating costs, and inventory commitments on one model.
By month
| Month | Subscriber revenue | Operating costs | Inventory payments | Net | Ending cash |
|---|
Scenarios
Same model, different orders. Recommended column keeps cash above the floor with the most cover.
Inventory
Units on hand against committed subscriber demand. When each SKU runs out, and the last day to order.
Units remaining
next 120 days at committed demandDepletion & reorder points
Order-by date = stockout date minus production lead timeReorder schedule
sorted by last safe order date| Order by | SKU | Co-manufacturer | Suggested qty | Unit cost | Order value | Covers to | Status |
|---|
Analytics
Twelve weeks of demand, retention, and unit economics behind the forecast.
Net revenue by week
12 weeksChannel mix
by monthActive subscribers & churn
12 weeksWeeks of cover by SKU
at current velocityAnything left of the marker cannot cover its own production lead time.
Retention curves by cohort
months since signupMRR retention by cohort
share of month-0 MRR still activeRecent cohorts retain better: Jul 2026 held 86% into month 1 against 79% for Mar 2026. The forecast uses these curves rather than a flat growth rate.
Shopify revenue
last 30 daysShopify Plus · liveConnections
Five sources feed the model. Read-only access, synced every morning.
Shopify Plus
fernwell.com · 8,912 orders / 30d
Recharge
8,940 active subscriptions
Stripe
Payouts T+2 · $184k / 30d
Chase via Plaid
2 accounts · balance live
ShipBob
7,100 units on hand · 2 FCs
Trellis Co-Pack
PO terms entered manually